Syracuse lost this game at Minnesota last year, but mostly due to being -4 in turnover margin and they still only lost by 7 on the road. This game will be played on neutral field in Texas. Revenge is definitely a factor, but I think we are also getting some nice value here because the public has pounded Minnesota and one could only think why.... Syracuse lost to Penn State and Northwestern to open the season while Minnesota beat both those teams. Syracuse was expected to struggle especially early in the season with a completely new coaching staff and a new QB, but they have turned their season around nicely.
When looking at this game it's all about the running games. Minnesota is 6th with a run play % at 67% while Syracuse is 39th with a 56.3%. I like the 4 points because it's hard to see Minnesota blowing any one out with the style of football they play. A deeper look at what each team does when they win and when they lose directly ties that success to running the football and stopping the run. So I took a deeper look at each team's rushing offense and defenses.
Lets start with the running defenses. Minnesota allowed over 5ypc to 4 of their last 5 opponents and ranked 90th. Syracuse has only faced one opponent outside the top 60 in run defense and they won that game 24-10. Minnesota did play plenty of top rushing attacks, but their non-conference schedule was against some bad Mountain West teams while Syracuse scheduled the Big 10. Syracuse averages 5.25 ypc in their wins vs. 3.82 in their losses and they have two capable RB in Gulley who is back and Smith. The x-factor is their QB Terrel Hunt who averaged nearly 5 ypc and is a very under rated thrower from what I saw in the Boston College game. Syracuse should be able to run the ball here considering they ranked 45th doing so against 9 top 50 run defenses who on average ranked 40th. I can not say the same for Minnesota.
When Minnesota has the ball they are far more 1 dimenstional than Syracuse and Syracuse on the surface has better stats stopping the run. They held Penn State at home to 1.5 ypc this year while Minnesota held them to 5.3 ypc. I throw the Northwestern common game out because Minnesota did not have to face them early in the year with a healthy Kain Colter who missed that game against Minnesota. Syracuse also stopped this same rushing attack in Minnesota a year ago holding them to 2.6 ypc. Syracuse should be able to do the same when they know what is coming and Minnesota can't win when they can't run. Minnesota's 54th ranked rushing game played an average 60th ranked rushing defense with only 5 in the top 40 in run defense like Syracuse. They went 1-4 in those 5 games.
Turnovers are also a big issues for these two teams and neither one really has a considerable advantage as Minnesota is +9 in wins and -6 in losses while Syracuse is +8 in wins and -6 in losses. I will say this though Syracuse takes more chances they are +16 in tackles for loss and +14 in sacks compared with Minnesota who is +1 and -6. Those are the type of plays that cause turnovers. Syracuse is also better in third down defense. Overall though I think Terrel Hunt at QB for Syracuse is the difference maker that gets Syracuse the upset here today.
